Photo by Phil Roeder / Creative Commons
By Matthew A. McIntosh / 04.04.2016
Sen. Bernie Sanders is eyeing a victory in tomorrow’s Wisconsin primary as several polls have him surging in the lead. Results from six polls during the past week are in consensus that he is currently the favored candidate.
The Emerson College poll shows Sanders now 8 points ahead of Hillary Clinton, 51% to 43%, in the Badger State. A CBS/YouGov poll tightens that lead by 49% to 47%. Fox Business gives Sanders a five point lead with 48% to 43%, while Public Policy Polling opens that a point with a 49% to 43% margin. Marquette Law School released a poll again showing a lead for Sanders with a 49% to 45% margin.
An overall sampling predicts that if the primary was held today, Sanders holds the lead over Clinton at 48% to 45%.
Of course we don’t have a crystal ball, and who knows what will happen in any primary or caucus no matter what the polls have to say. If Sanders wins the state, it looks at the moment that it will be within a five percent margin or perhaps less.
Wisconsin is important, and the two candidates are in negotiation to debate for the April 19 primary in New York. If Sanders wins Wisconsin, he heads to New York, where Clinton’s lead has gradually diminished to now ten points from the healthy 25-30 point lead she had moving into January.
We’ve seen this story play out before with Clinton’s lead narrowing and Sanders surging to a surprising victory, however close. Two weeks remain between now and New York, and Sanders has a proven history of whittling away at such leads and turning the tide.