By Matthew A. McIntosh / 10.27.2016
As the presidential race enters its last twelve days and early voting has begun, the polls are separating the candidates into their holds and swings as the Electoral map gives more predictive ability.
There are currently five swing-states: Nevada, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. The map, without those states taken into consideration, sets Clinton at 272 and Trump at 186 Electoral votes, which gives Clinton the presidency (270 needed to win).
The problem for Trump is that even if he wins every one of those five states, that gives him eighty more Electoral votes and takes him to 265, still short of Clinton at 272 with the necessary number for the win.
There is one and only one path to victory on this map for Trump – he must turn a blue state red while managing to win all five swings. Trump has zero breathing room here while Clinton can do without winning any of them and retain her 272. To accomplish this, the Trump team is placing all its eggs in the New Hampshire basket, where Clinton currently leads by 6.5 points.
Here is an average of polls in each of the five states:
Nevada: Clinton leads by 2 points.
Arizona: Clinton leads by 1.5 points.
Florida: Clinton leads by 1.6 points.
North Carolina: Clinton leads by 2 points.
Ohio: Trump leads by 1.1 points.
If the maps holds at current projections and Clinton wins any of those states, the election is over and those are just icing on the cake for her.
If the map holds at current projections and Trump wins all of those states – a tall order indeed given current polls in each of them – the election is over and he came close.
If the map holds at current projections and Trump wins all of those states along with managing to turn a blue state red, such as New Hampshire, the election is over and he wins.
Clinton has room here to end with a clear mandate. Trump, no matter what, does not have a path to that mandate. In either case, a mandate likely doesn’t mean “we want you” as much as it means “we really don’t want the other”.
Another enormous problem for Trump is that Clinton is knocking on his door to actually turn a red state blue. Texas and Georgia have both been running close between them. He also has Independent Evan McMullin threatening to rip the Utah rug out from under his feet, which is a gift to Clinton as then turning a blue state like New Hampshire wouldn’t help him.
That leaves Trump having to do three things:
- Win all five current swing-states.
- Turn a blue state red.
- Hold on to Utah.
Clinton has only one thing she must do:
- Hold the map as is.
Is it possible for Trump to win? Sure it is. It’s also possible for a person to win a mega-lottery twice in a row. The probabilities, however, are about the same.