By Matthew A. McIntosh / 09.14.2016
Editor-in-Chief
Brewminate
The Electoral College contains 538 “electors” who choose the next president by a simple majority of 270 votes. The first candidate to reach that number becomes the next President of the United States. 48 states are “winner-take-all” because all of their electoral votes go to the candidate winning the popular vote. Two states – Nebraska and Maine – allot their votes by congressional districts (Nebraska with five and Maine with four votes for a total of nine).
The Votes
Let’s see where the candidates currently stand and where it looks to be heading. First, following is a list of the states and the number of electoral votes each has:
US State | Electoral Votes | US State | Electoral Votes |
Alabama | 9 | Montana | 3 |
Alaska | 3 | Nebraska | 5 |
Arizona | 11 | Nevada | 6 |
Arkansas | 6 | New Hampshire | 4 |
California | 55 | New Jersey | 14 |
Colorado | 9 | New Mexico | 5 |
Connecticut | 7 | New York | 29 |
Delaware | 3 | North Carolina | 15 |
Florida | 29 | North Dakota | 3 |
Georgia | 16 | Ohio | 18 |
Hawaii | 4 | Oklahoma | 7 |
Idaho | 4 | Oregon | 7 |
Illinois | 20 | Pennsylvania | 20 |
Indiana | 11 | Rhode Island | 4 |
Iowa | 6 | South Carolina | 9 |
Kansas | 6 | South Dakota | 3 |
Kentucky | 8 | Tennessee | 11 |
Louisiana | 8 | Texas | 38 |
Maine | 4 | Utah | 6 |
Maryland | 10 | Vermont | 3 |
Massachusetts | 11 | Virginia | 13 |
Michigan | 16 | Washington | 12 |
Minnesota | 10 | West Virginia | 5 |
Mississippi | 6 | Wisconsin | 10 |
Missouri | 10 | Wyoming | 3 |
Current Standings
Now we need to see where each candidate currently stands in the polls in each state. An average of polls in each state is taken here, as follows:
US State | Electoral Votes | US State | Electoral Votes |
Alabama | Trump +20 | Montana | Trump +13 |
Alaska | Trump +5 | Nebraska | Trump +14 |
Arizona | Trump +3 | Nevada | Clinton +2 |
Arkansas | Trump +11 | New Hampshire | Clinton +6 |
California | Clinton +25 | New Jersey | Clinton +12 |
Colorado | Clinton +10 | New Mexico | Clinton +9 |
Connecticut | Clinton +11 | New York | Clinton +22 |
Delaware | Clinton +10 | North Carolina | Clinton +2 |
Florida | Trump +2 | North Dakota | Trump +18 |
Georgia | Trump +3 | Ohio | Trump +2 |
Hawaii | Clinton +20 | Oklahoma | Trump +24 |
Idaho | Trump +21 | Oregon | Clinton +7 |
Illinois | Clinton +22 | Pennsylvania | Clinton +6 |
Indiana | Trump +8 | Rhode Island | Clinton +3 |
Iowa | Trump +2 | South Carolina | Trump +7 |
Kansas | Trump +13 | South Dakota | Trump +15 |
Kentucky | Trump +13 | Tennessee | Trump +9 |
Louisiana | Trump +11 | Texas | Trump +7 |
Maine | Clinton +8 | Utah | Trump +15 |
Maryland | Clinton +33 | Vermont | Clinton +21 |
Massachusetts | Clinton +23 | Virginia | Clinton +4 |
Michigan | Clinton +5 | Washington | Clinton +12 |
Minnesota | Clinton +9 | West Virginia | Trump +22 |
Mississippi | Trump +9 | Wisconsin | Clinton +5 |
Missouri | Trump +4 | Wyoming | Trump +32 |
By current polls, Clinton wins 24 states and Trump wins 26. Here, Maine will be given to Clinton and Nebraska to Trump – this will not really affect things either way.
Were the election to end with the above results, Clinton would receive 291 electoral votes to Trump’s 247 and become the next president.
Let’s give all states that currently favor Clinton by two to three percent to Trump – Nevada, North Carolina, and Rhode Island. In that case, Clinton would receive 266 votes to Trump’s 270, exactly the number needed to make him the next president.
Trump must retain his current leads as well as managing to turn the tide in those three states currently favoring Clinton to barely reach the magic 270. However, the states given to him above in which he only has a two to three percent lead (Florida, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio), may well swing back to Clinton by the time of the election. If Clinton takes any of those four states, her margin of victory simply increases.
There are ultimately really four states to watch in this election: Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio.
A gambler would lay down odds on Clinton in this race, but she/he would be nervous.