Donald Trump addresses the convention after accepting the Republican nomination for President. The 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland. Thursday July 21, 2016. Cleveland, OH, USA (Aristide Economopoulos | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)
By Jonathan D. Salant (NJ.com) / 08.14.2016
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has an almost 9 in 10 chance of winning the presidency in November — her largest advantage to date — according to statistics guru Nate Silver, who successfully predicted the outcome of every state in the 2012 election.
Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com website gave Clinton an 89 percent of winning the White House this fall, compared with 11 percent for Republican nominee Donald Trump. The forecast, based on an analysis of opinion polls, was released Sunday.
Since the Democratic National Convention, Clinton has led in both national opinion polls and those in battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina. Clinton is ahead by an average of 7 percentage points nationally, according to Real Clear Politics.
How Trump and Clinton fare in swing states
No Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio, and the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College and Quinnipiac University surveys released last week gave Clinton leads of 5 and 4 percentage points respectively.
In a series of tweets on Sunday, Trump, who said immigrants from Mexico were “rapists,” called for a ban on Muslims entering the U.S., criticized the parents of a Muslim-American Army captain who lost his life in Iraq, and questioned the “Mexican heritage” of an Indiana-born federal judge, blamed his dismal showing in the polls on news coverage of his campaign.
It is not “freedom of the press” when newspapers and others are allowed to say and write whatever they want even if it is completely false!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2016
I am not only fighting Crooked Hillary, I am fighting the dishonest and corrupt media and her government protection process. People get it!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2016
Crooked Hillary Clinton is being protected by the media. She is not a talented person or politician. The dishonest media refuses to expose!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2016
My rallies are not covered properly by the media. They never discuss the real message and never show crowd size or enthusiasm.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2016
If the disgusting and corrupt media covered me honestly and didn’t put false meaning into the words I say, I would be beating Hillary by 20%
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2016