Brewminate 2020 Election Forecast



Brewminate’s running weekly forecast for the 2020 election.


By Matthew A. McIntosh
Journalist and Historian
Brewminate Editor-in-Chief


Brewminate will be updating a forecast of the 2020 election on a weekly basis. The updates will be posted every Saturday at a minimum with possible updates daily with added commentary. We take an average across multiple polls in each state to gauge whether a state is heavily in a candidate’s camp or too close to safely predict at the moment.

Many people are discussing, obviously, the 2016 election and how predictions were opposite the final results. This is true. And of course many are trotting out the familiar “don’t listen to polls” song and dance. History shows this not to be true. It is instead something that is popular to say but not much else.

There have been surprises in the past. 2016 was not one of them in hindsight. The polls were almost dead-on. Hillary Clinton did indeed win the popular vote by nearly three million. The problem came in with people simply taking national poll predictions as the final purveyor, and we’ve learned even in 2000 that this is never wise. We operate on the Electoral College in the presidential election, and popular vote polls – no matter how accurate they are, as they were in 2016 – cannot always reliably predict a probable outcome

We are trying to avoid that mistake here. We do not look at national polls at all. Instead, we look at state polls and average multiple polls within states to better gauge their direction. We look at important county polls within states to make this prediction as accurate as it can be.

We will be adding House and Senate races to this page as well to forecast what Congress will probably look like after November when they take office in January.

We’re not including a lot of bells and whistles on this page. The goal is to keep it simple and straightforward. Do your own search on the many polls available and decide if you agree with how we’re calling it.

Current Poll Standings in All States

STATELEADERELECTORAL COUNT
AlabamaTrump9
AlaskaTrump3
ArizonaToo Close11
ArkansasTrump6
CaliforniaBiden55
ColoradoBiden9
ConnecticutBiden7
DelawareBiden3
District of ColumbiaBiden3
FloridaToo Close29
GeorgiaToo Close16
HawaiiBiden4
IdahoTrump4
IllinoisBiden20
IndianaTrump11
IowaToo Close6
KansasTrump6
KentuckyTrump8
LouisianaTrump8
Maine – CD1Biden2
Maine – CD2Too Close2
MarylandBiden10
MassachusettsBiden11
MichiganBiden16
MinnesotaBiden10
MississippiTrump6
MissouriTrump10
MontanaTrump3
Nebraska – CD1Trump1
Nebraska – CD2Too Close1
Nebraska – CD3Trump1
Nebraska – StatewideToo Close2
NevadaToo Close6
New HampshireBiden4
New JerseyBiden14
New MexicoBiden5
New YorkBiden29
North CarolinaToo Close15
North DakotaTrump3
OhioToo Close18
OklahomaTrump7
OregonBiden7
PennsylvaniaBiden20
Rhode IslandBiden4
South CarolinaTrump9
South DakotaTrump3
TennesseeTrump11
TexasToo Close38
UtahTrump6
VermontBiden3
VirginiaBiden13
WashingtonBiden12
West VirginiaTrump5
WisconsinBiden10
WyomingTrump3

Current Standings

Electoral College Total538
Needed to Win270
Total Biden271
Total Trump123
Too Close144

Brewminate Forecast of States Currently Too Close

STATELEADERELECTORAL COUNT
ArizonaBiden11
FloridaTrump29
GeorgiaTrump16
IowaTrump6
Maine CD2Biden2
Nebraska CD2Biden1
Nebraska – StatewideBiden2
NevadaBiden6
North CarolinaBiden15
OhioBiden18
TexasTrump38

Brewminate Final Forecast

Electoral College Total538
Needed to Win270
Total Biden326
Total Trump212

In the above forecast, even if we just give ALL states that are too close to call to Trump, Biden still wins the Electoral College – 279 to 259 (270 needed to win). Trump would have to win every one of those that are too close along with flipping another state or two where Biden currently has a comfortable lead, such as Michigan and Wisconsin that gave Trump his razor-thin Electoral College victory in 2016.

In 2016, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas were never too close to predict at any point during the election, and others on this “too close” list were more clearly leaning one way or the other. This alone is remarkable. Trump will spend a little time in those three states going forward, but look for him to really ramp up in Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin as we move closer to the election. He’s going to have hope the others go for him as they did in 2016 even though they’re now too close, and try to grab two more along with flipping the battlegrounds that are against him this time around.

There are “uphill battles”, and then there is the proverbial “Hail Mary”. The way things are looking right now, even a Hail Mary has a better chance than Trump.

This is Biden’s election to lose.

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