It will drive turnout and make a difference in close Senate and House races as well as key state legislative races.
By Susan Milligan
Senior Politics Writer
U.S. News & World Report
Americans have made it clear that they’re not too excited about another matchup this fall between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. But they do care about abortion laws – and that issue may end up deciding not only the presidential race but campaigns for Congress as well, experts say.
Florida this week became the third state where an abortion-related referendum will be on the ballot. Not only could a vote in favor of the ballot initiative reverse the Sunshine State’s recently affirmed six-week abortion ban, but it could spur otherwise disaffected voters to get to the polls. And that, Biden-Harris operatives believe, takes the delegate-rich state of Florida from a Democratic fantasy to a genuine – if still Republican-friendly – battleground for both the presidential race and the seat now held by GOP Sen. Rick Scott.
Even in states where abortion is now legal, the issue could get voters to the polls, possibly making a difference in close Senate and House races as well as key state legislative races. Abortion was the No. 1 issue in political ad spending in 2022 and 2023, after the Supreme Court ruling undoing guaranteed abortion rights, according to data by AdImpact, and campaigns for seats up and down the ballot are already making reproductive rights a central issue.
“Anything that increases the salience of abortion rights in this cycle is meaningful,” says Jill Habig, founder and president of the nonprofit civil rights group Public Rights Project and a former adviser to then-California Attorney General Kamala Harris. “We have learned two election cycles in a row, and in every special election so far, that every time abortion has been on the ballot, people have voted for abortion rights.”
Abortion foes have been on defense, especially after in-vitro fertilization was imperiled in Alabama because of a court interpretation of the state’s “personhood” law. They are casting Democrats as the extremists on the issue, saying the party wants to allow abortion under any circumstances.
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