By Matthew A. McIntosh / 11.01.2016
You can see the state-by-state polling averages to this date, 11/01/2016, at the bottom. 270 Electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.
If the election ended with with each candidate winning the states per those averages, Clinton would become president with 305 to 233 Electoral votes.
If we take all states polling at 5% or less advantage to either candidate and make them current toss-ups with neither candidate winning at the moment, Clinton still becomes president with 275 to 173 Electoral votes.
Obviously, this means that Clinton can lose every toss-up – all battlegrounds – and win the presidency. She has to do absolutely nothing other than hold what she’s got while Trump absolutely must win every toss-up.
If Trump wins every toss-up, which is highly unlikely, he would still be short with a Clinton victory of 275 to 263 Electoral votes.
This leaves Trump needing to accomplish three tasks:
- He must hold Utah. In some polls, Independent candidate Evan McMullin is polling with two percentages of Trump. If McMullin wins the state, Trump cannot win the presidential election.
- He must turn a blue state red. Maine, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are the only three states giving him a remote opportunity to do. Maine has two Electoral votes, but it’s not winner-take-all and Trump would seek one of them.
- He must win all five toss-ups.
While the FBI release seems to have only slightly narrowed Clinton’s national poll leads, the affect across all state polls – where it matters as we do not elect the president on a popular vote – has been minimal to non-existent.
Trump is this week where he was last, and he will likely be next week where he is now – needing to climb a very, very steep hill. Clinton has a singular task – just hold where she is.
STATE POLL AVERAGES
Alabama: Trump by 20 points…9 Electoral votes
Alaska: Trump by 6 points…3 Electoral votes
Arizona: Clinton by 0.6 points…11 Electoral votes
Arkansas: Trump by 25 points…6 Electoral votes
California: Clinton by 23 votes…55 Electoral votes
Colorado: Clinton by 4 points…9 Electoral votes
Connecticut: Clinton by 15 points…7 Electoral votes
Delaware: Clinton by 9 points…3 Electoral votes
Florida: Trump by 1 point…29 Electoral votes
Georgia: Trump by 4 points…16 Electoral votes
Hawaii: Clinton by 20 points…4 Electoral votes
Idaho: Trump by 19 points…4 Electoral votes
Illinois: Clinton by 16 points…20 Electoral votes
Indiana: Trump by 7 points…11 Electoral votes
Iowa: Trump by 1.4 points…6 Electoral votes
Kansas: Trump by 11 points…6 Electoral votes
Kentucky: Trump by 12 points…8 Electoral votes
Louisiana: Trump by 16 points…8 Electoral votes
Maine 1: Clinton by 7 points…1 Electoral votes
Maine 2: Clinton by 12 points…1 Electoral votes
Maryland: Clinton by 32 points…10 Electoral votes
Massachusetts: Clinton by 30 points…11 Electoral votes
Michigan: Clinton by 7 points…16 Electoral votes
Minnesota: Clinton by 6 points…10 Electoral votes
Mississippi: Trump by 15 points…6 Electoral votes
Missouri: Trump by 10 points…10 Electoral votes
Montana: Trump by 15 points…3 Electoral votes
Nebraska 1: Trump by 27 points…4 Electoral votes
Nebraska 2: Trump by 9 points…1 Electoral votes
Nevada: Clinton by 1 point…6 Electoral votes
New Hampshire: Clinton by 5 points…4 Electoral votes
New Jersey: Clinton by 11 points…14 Electoral votes
New Mexico: Clinton by 9 points…5 Electoral votes
New York: Clinton by 21 points…29 Electoral votes
North Carolina: Clinton by 2 points…15 Electoral votes
North Dakota: Trump by 25 points…3 Electoral votes
Ohio: Trump by 3 points…18 Electoral votes
Oklahoma: Trump by 24 points…7 Electoral votes
Oregon: Clinton by 9 points…7 Electoral votes
Pennsylvania: Clinton by 6 points…20 Electoral votes
Rhode Island: Clinton by 20 points…4 Electoral votes
South Carolina: Trump by 4 points…9 Electoral votes
South Dakota: Clinton by 7 points…3 Electoral votes
Tennessee: Trump by 12 points…11 Electoral votes
Texas: Trump by 8 points…38 Electoral votes
Utah: Trump by 6 points…6 Electoral votes
Vermont: Clinton by 26 points…3 Electoral votes
Virginia: Clinton by 6 points…13 Electoral votes
Washington: Clinton by 13 points…12 Electoral votes
West Virginia: Trump by 18 points…5 Electoral votes
Wisconsin: Clinton by 6 points…10 Electoral votes
Wyoming: Trump by 20 points…3 Electoral votes