A Latino and Hispanic Blue Wave is Swamping Trump in Nevada



Jon Ralston

By Matt Osborne / 11.05.2016


With ABC’s national tracking poll showing a full rebound in enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton, something big is happening in early voting states with substantial Latino and Hispanic populations. One such state may prove to be the decisive edge in the Electoral College for Hillary Clinton.

According to Jon Ralston, the recognized dean of Nevada political news, high turnout in Clark County is taking the state off the table for reality show star-turned-Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Yesterday morning, we learned that Clinton seems to enjoy a decisive advantage with the nation’s largest minority demographic. In a pre-noon press conference with reporters, the polling group Latino Decisions said they expect historic turnout. According to their projections, “between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latinos will vote on or before Tuesday– a major increase from 2012 numbers when the group estimated 11.2 million voted.”

Latino Decisions is estimating– using their own turnout predictor– that Clinton is on track to capture 79 percent of the Latino vote. Trump, on the other hand, is expected to garner only 18 percent (almost 10 points down from Romney’s 27 percent performance.)

“Her lead over Donald Trump was larger than Obama’s over Romney for the entire year,” Sanchez said.

The Clinton campaign has focused important resources on winning Nevada this week, with Bill Clinton appearing at a Thursday night “campaign rave” hosted by dance music star DJ Steve Aoki. According to Ralston, these efforts to get out the vote appeared to be in full effect last night as polling stations stayed open late to accommodate long lines.

Turnout at that polling location drew the head Trump poll watcher’s personal interest. He’s been really busy this week testifying before a federal judge about the Trump campaign’s voter intimidation plans, which are clearly not working very well thanks to the typical disorganization of everything Donald Trump.

By the end of the night, all previous turnout records had been smashed and things looked mighty grim for the Trump campaign in the Silver State. Democrats specifically made an effort to spread the electoral energy down the ballot, too, so this Latino wave will have some effect on Senate and House races. Looks like the GOP could be taking a bath with Trump:

The early voting period is now closed, but the strong turnout likely means that Hillary Clinton will ‘beat the spread‘ on her average opinion polling advantage in Nevada. That’s big news because Donald Trump really, really needs to win Nevada, as you can see in the map below. Even if he manages to win Iowa, Ohio, and New Hampshire (possible) as well as Pennsylvania (improbable) and Florida (impossible), without Nevada, his “path” to Electoral College victory changes from “narrow” to virtually nonexistent. People are talking about a “Clinton firewall” scenario; this is what it would look like.